Gold Gears up for Brewing Crisis

Quarter in review: gold's all-time-high in sight

  • Gold gained 9% in Q1 2023, but see-sawed on bond market volatility
  • A surge in March to record the highest monthly inflows since 2019, reversed two weak months for global gold ETFs and futures investment

Looking forward

  • Gold’s ‘mere’ resilience in 2022 may have been a disappointment to some. Despite crosswinds from unprecedented monetary tightening and spiking inflation, no real crisis materialised. But the risk of one is growing now
  • Unprecedented rate hikes have started to break things, most notably in small US banks and the commercial real estate sector. While contained for now, it represents an increasing risk of systemic escalation
  • With a US recession still on the cards, growing systemic risk adds to gold’s case.
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