The global economy is at an inflection point, as major central banks continue their efforts to stifle inflation. Gold’s performance in the new year will be shaped primarily by economic growth, interest rates and inflation, with additional influence from geopolitics and the US dollar.

The economic consensus indicates weaker global growth alongside declining – but still elevated – inflation and the end of rate hikes in most markets. This mixed set of conditions imply a stable but positive outlook for gold in 2023, aided by its role as both a consumer good and investable asset.

However, there is a significant risk that central banks will over-tighten, leading to a more acute recession. In this scenario, gold’s value as a long-term, strategic investable asset should come into focus, given it has delivered positive returns in five out of the last seven recessions.

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